Biden has big lead over Trump in N.J. as Election Day nears

Posted Oct 29, 2020

This is why the presidential candidates aren’t spending much time in New Jersey this fall.

Former Vice President Joe Biden held a 24-point lead over President Donald Trump in New Jersey, while U.S. Sen. Cory Booker led Republican Rik Mehta by 30 points, according to a poll released Thursday. .

Biden’s edge among likely voters was 61% to 37%, in the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Booker, D-N.J., was ahead of Mehta, a pharmacist and lawyer, 61% to 31%.

“New Jersey has not been a contested state in presidential elections for the past few decades, and this year is no different,” said Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of Rutgers’ Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

“Much like his lead nationally, Biden’s wide margin over Trump in the Garden State has endured throughout the campaign and has only been solidified in the final days of the race.”

Biden led Trump all across the state, including a 60%-36% edge in South Jersey and the Philadelphia suburbs. Trump’s slight edge among white voters, 49% to 48%, was more than offset by Biden’s 92%-4% among Blacks and 67%-27% among Hispanics.

But a majority of New Jerseyans, 54%, answered “not very much” or “not at all" when asked if they trusted the polls to correctly predict the next president. That included 70% of Republicans.

Just 43%, including 63% of Democrats, said they trusted the polls “a great deal” or “a fair amount.”

“After a perceived failure of the polls in 2016, pre-election polling has been met with much hesitation and skepticism this election cycle, making 2020 potentially consequential for the future of the survey industry,” said Koning.

“But we have to remember that surveys are blunt instruments and snapshots in time. Polls are not meant to be predictive but rather explanatory, a scientific estimate of why people feel and do what they do.”

The poll of 872 likely voters was conducted Oct. 18–24 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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published this page in News and Politics 2020-10-30 02:41:15 -0700